Newcastle United vs Arsenal Prediction: Newcastle United will likely secure their EFL Cup final spot despite potentially losing 2-1 to Arsenal on the night, advancing with a 3-2 aggregate victory, based on their two-goal first-leg advantage, strong home record of winning three of their last four matches against Arsenal, and the Gunners’ key absences of Jesus, Saka, and Tomiyasu.
Key Facts
- Newcastle United holds a 2-0 aggregate lead from the first leg.
- Arsenal must score at least three goals to advance.
- Newcastle seeks first League Cup final appearance since 1976.
- Arsenal last won this competition in 1993.
- Newcastle has won three of their last four matches against Arsenal.
Newcastle United vs Arsenal – EFL Cup Semi-Final Second Leg
| Detail | Information |
|---|---|
| Competition | EFL Cup Semi-Final Second Leg |
| Date | February 5, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 20:00 GMT |
| Venue | St. James’ Park |
| First Leg Result | Arsenal 0-2 Newcastle |
| Referee | Simon Hooper |
| TV Coverage | See broadcast section below |
Match Preview
Newcastle United welcomes Arsenal to St. James’ Park with a significant advantage in this EFL Cup semi-final tie. The Magpies secured a commanding 2-0 victory at the Emirates through goals from Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, putting them in prime position to reach their first League Cup final in 48 years.
Newcastle United vs Arsenal Lineups and Team News
Newcastle United Lineup (Expected 4-3-3): Pope; Livramento, Botman, Schar, Hall; Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Murphy, Isak, Gordon
Arsenal Lineup (Expected 4-3-3): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Martinelli, Havertz, Trossard
Injury Report
Newcastle United Injury
- Harvey Barnes (muscle) – Out
- Jamaal Lascelles (ACL) – Out
- Callum Wilson (hamstring) – Late fitness test
Arsenal Injury
- Gabriel Jesus (ACL) – Out
- Bukayo Saka (hamstring) – Out
- Takehiro Tomiyasu (knee) – Out
- Ben White (knee) – Doubtful
Tactical Analysis
Newcastle’s approach under Eddie Howe has proven effective against Arsenal, particularly at St. James’ Park. The Magpies’ high-pressing system and quick transitions have troubled Mikel Arteta’s side in recent meetings. Arsenal’s possession-based style must adapt to break down Newcastle’s resolute defense while maintaining defensive stability.
Key Players to Watch
Newcastle United Key Players
- Bruno Guimaraes returns from suspension to strengthen midfield control
- Alexander Isak’s form continues to impress with crucial goals
- Nick Pope could return to starting lineup after recent bench role
Arsenal Key Players
- Declan Rice’s midfield presence crucial for controlling tempo
- Kai Havertz tasked with forward duties in Jesus’s absence
- David Raya’s distribution key to breaking Newcastle’s press
Head-to-Head Analysis
Recent meetings favor Newcastle, particularly at St. James’ Park:
- Last 5 meetings: Newcastle 3 wins, Arsenal 1 win, 1 draw
- Newcastle scored in last 4 home games against Arsenal
- Arsenal’s last win at St. James’ Park: May 2023 (2-0)
Broadcast Information
UK: Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Football
USA: Paramount+
International: Check local listings
Statistical Insights
Newcastle United’s home record:
- Won 40 of 86 home games against Arsenal
- Averaged 1.55 goals per game at home this season
- Kept clean sheets in 60% of home cup matches
Arsenal’s away form:
- Won 27 of 86 away games at Newcastle
- Scored in 79.75% of away matches this season
- Need biggest win at Newcastle since 2010
Current Form
Newcastle United:
- Last 5: LWWWL
- Home form remains strong despite recent setback against Fulham
Arsenal:
- Last 5: WWWWD
- Coming off impressive 5-1 victory over Manchester City
Match Prediction
Given Newcastle’s two-goal advantage and strong home record against Arsenal, combined with key absences for the Gunners, Newcastle appears well-positioned to reach the final despite potentially losing on the night. The tactical battle between Howe and Arteta will prove crucial in determining the outcome.
This semi-final second leg presents a fascinating tactical contest between two sides with contrasting styles and objectives. Arsenal must balance attacking necessity with defensive stability, while Newcastle can afford to be more measured in their approach.
Also Read: Coventry City vs Leeds United Prediction
